The province of North Cotabato could end up being divided into two smaller provinces as the approval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) in 2015 is expected to dramatically alter the political geography of Central Mindanao.

Aside from the 39 barangays already identified as part of the core area of the expanded Bangsamoro Territory indicated in the FAB signed on Oct. 15 last year, many more predominantly Bangsamoro populated barangays could be carved out of North Cotabato after the plebiscite in 2015.

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It is indicated in Article V of the FAB that in determining the territory of the Bangsamoro, villages which are “contiguous” to the core territory could ask for their inclusion in the plebiscite by a petition of “10 per cent of the voters” of the area or the resolution passed by the local government unit.

This provision would allow the barangays in the Libungan-Torreta area of Pigcawayan, the Riverside of Midsayap, the Buliok Complex of Pikit, the Riverside of Kabacan and the Bangasamoro barangays of Carmen near the Pulangui River all the way up to the Bukidnon boundary to petition their inclusion in the expanded Bangsamoro Territory.

The inclusion of these barangays to the Bangsamoro Territory would effectively slice North Cotabato into two smaller areas with the eastern portion composed of the capital city of Kidapawan and the towns of Makilala, Tulunan, M’lang, Matalam, a portion of Kabacan, Magpet, Pres. Roxas, Antipas and Arakan.

The western part will be composed of the towns of Midsayap, Libungan, a portion of Pigcawayan, Alamada, a portion of Banisilan, a portion of Carmen, a portion of Pikit and a portion of Aleosan.

This is a political scenario whose indicators were visible in the last elections where the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) flexed its political muscles and used its influence in working against candidates perceived to be against the movement.

Already, there are also indications that the unrest in the University of Southern Mindanao, the biggest agricultural state university in the Southern Philippines, was not just a result of an effort to oust University Pres. Jesus Derije.

Political observers believe that the effort to wrest control of the USM was engineered by groups who wanted the university to be headed by somebody sympathetic to the Bangsamoro cause.

Troubles which erupted in Matalam and Tulunan towns recently were also interpreted as part of the efforts to expand the MILF’s influence in these areas preparatory to the plebiscite to be conducted in 2015.

The expansion of the Bangsamoro territory will not only be confined to North Cotabato areas.

Sultan Kudarat Province, following the “contiguity” provision in the FAB could also be a target for expansion, especially the towns and villages which are predominantly Bangsamoro populated.

This scenario is real because while there is an impasse between the government and the MILF on the issue of wealth-sharing within the Bangsamoro Territory, it is almost certain that the peace deal will be signed during the term of President Benigno S. Aquino III.

Right now, the feeling among people in the area, especially civilians who have long suffered from the terror of the protracted conflict, is one of resigned acceptance.

The general sentiment is: “If this is the way to end the conflict, let it be.”

At the same time, however, there is a question in the back of the mind of people of the area: “Will this really bring about the end of the conflict and usher in the peace that we have all dreamed of?”

This is a question nobody could answer at this time.

Manny Piñol is former governor of North Cotabato. This article first apperared on his website.